w h o a r . c o . n z

i’d like to go out on a limb here…and present what i think is obamas’ plan to prevent what is looking like a trainwreck of a mid-term election..

one that threatens to derail his presidency..forever..

there is one certainty around any predictions about the ’secret-plans’ of the obama team..

..that is that they will have to be radical .. to stop the current slide..

just to back up for a minute..what got me thinking about all this was an item buried on the business page of the new york times earlier this year.

..(and not commented on/examined in the american media since then..)

..that item was that obama had issued a presidential order/decree of sorts to the management of the (govt-run/owned) fannie mae..and freddie mac..mortgage companies..

that decree was that the previously-mandated limits on the monies the mortgage-companies could call on the federal government for were to be removed..

..and not only that..but that in the future there would now be no ceiling/limits on the amount of monies the companies could ask for…

now..that got me scratching my head..

..why was this done..?..

..there is/was no obvious answer that explains such a radical move..(more on that later..)

..my wondering/pondering on this was in conjunction with another examination of what obama has/has not done…

what brought this on..was that having published/linked to the earliest critiques of oama..(during the messianic-stage)..

..i now found myself running with the pack..on obama..

..and running with the pack makes me very very nervous..

..as the pack as usually way way behind the/any actual game..

so..i started looking at what obama has done..from a different perspective..and that proved to be somewhat revelatory..

the perspective i took was based on some givens:..

the first was the (prevously-noted) trainwreck destination…(unless radical plans are enacted..)

the second was the political ’smarts’ of obama..(and how he can not fail to see this..)

..the third was that those political smarts were earned in one of the most brutal/cynical political machines in america..

..the chicago/illinois democrat party-machine..

i then moved to the history of democrat administrations…and what has traditionally knobbled/castrated them..

..and all of this led me to the conclusion that obama is one smart cookie..who is playing a ‘long game’…

..and that we are now (only) just past the end of year one of that eight-year game-time/plan…

and let’s look at what obama has done/achieved in that year..

two of the power-blocs in america that have traditionally opposed democrat presidents..are the military-hawks/industrial-complex…

..and wall st/’the banks’..

..and (however wrongly implemented)..obama has silenced both..for the seeming duration of his presidency..

..however you argue the rights and wrongs of the wars…

..their engagement there takes the military-industrial complex (sorta) out of any serious oppositional role against obama..

..(they are ‘too busy’..as it were..)

and as for wall st/the banks..?

once again..however arguably ineptly executed..obama inherited the world that bush jnr left him..and had to stop the collapse of the global financial system..

and in that execution..the banks/wall st have been given enough greed/corruption-rope..to hang themselves..

..and hang themselves they have..

..(is anyone else surprised at the rapid changes in reputational-fortunes of the (former) ‘masters of the universe’..?

..from hero to below zero..in the snap of a crash..)

the banks/wall st/financial establishment have..given the ‘bank’ of hatred they have built up..

..totally disempowered themselves for the duration of obamas’-game..

..and are now low hanging fruit..unable to mount a single moral argument against serious regulatory-reforms of their industries..

..so..at the end of year one..of eight..obama has emasculated/castrated two of the traditional anti-democrat power-blocs..

..no mean feats..!..eh..?

and feats..i would submit..that only strengthen my long-game thesis…

so..what will obama do..?..to ’save’ the midterm elections..?

one plan he has up his sleeve is a green-stimulus package..

(he still has most of his stimulus-money left..so i think it is a no-brainer that a ‘grand green stimulus plan’ will be announced pre-midterm..)

the other move he will make will not be less ‘grand’..but perhaps less obvious..

which brings us back to that fannie mae/freddie mac item/news from earlier in the year..

..now..we all know that nothing happens for no reason..esp in the world of politics..

..so..my conclusion/prediction is that obama will use those govt. agencies as the vehicles for a radical defacto nationalisation of the american mortgage industry..

..one of the main criticisms of obama to date has been that everything has been done for wall st..

..and nothing for the struggling american working/middle classses…

so..any move..to have any hope of success..must directly answer/deflect those valid criticisms..

..so what obama will do..

..is that he will tell all of those americans facing foreclosure/losing their homes..

..that they will be able to transfer their mortgages to fannie mae/freddie mac..

..and re-negotiate those mortgages to reflect their straightened economic circumstances..

..and i see this as being somewhat of a ‘brilliant stroke’ by obama..

..for two reasons…

..he ends those ‘nothing for main st’ criticisms ..in a spectacular manner…(back to hero..from zero..)

..and the cherry on this cake..is that he need not go near the (possible roadblocks/spoilers) senate/congress for any approval..

..he can just tell fannie mae/freddy mac to ‘just do it’…

..and the answer to ‘why that piece in the nyt?’..

..is that that is/was just the preparing of the ground…

(and those who would scoff at any ‘nationalisation-idea’..

..should maybe ponder the fact that due to the govt taking over the assets of banks as they crash..

.that the american govt is already the largest real landlord/’owner’ of private property in america..

..expanding the roles of fannie/freddy in a ’saviour-deal’ is not that much of a step further..)

..obama the man..wants to be bigger than fdr/’the new deal’..

he still has seven years to achieve that in..

..and if the ‘long-game-thesis’ holds true..

..is firmly on-track..

(sorry..!..having started with a train-pun/metaphor..(i couldn’t resist returning there for a full-stop..eh..?..)

This entry was posted on Sunday, February 14th, 2010 at 10:38 am and is filed under international politics/culture/ stuff, op-ed, we recommend. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.